Solar Activity and Perturbations in Economy and Society

Theoretical claims

	William Stanley Jevons (1835-1882), English economist and logician: Major “commercial crises” occur with intervals broadly matching solar cycle length, a “beautiful coincidence”. Read more
	Alexander Chizhevsky (1897-1964), Russian interdisciplinary scientist: Up to 60 percent of revolutions and other “most important historical events involving large numbers of people” occur in three years around and after cyclical maximums of solar activity. Read more

Solar Activity and Economic Recessions

In the US, where the longest series of consistent recession dates is available, during the entire XX century and in the early XXI century each cyclical maximum of solar activity overlapped closely with a recession. This striking pattern worked for over 100 years until the US economy did not go into recession after the maximum of the weak solar cycle 24 in April 2014. Are we going to see a US recession after the maximum of solar cycle 25 in October 2024?

Solar Activity and Revolutions

Two most important revolutionary events of the XX century – the Russian revolution of 1917 that brought communists to power and the USSR collapse in 1991 – occurred in the years of maximum solar activity.

	Years	Events
	1905-07	Revolution of 1905-07 in the Russian Empire
	1917 1918	February Revolution, Great October Socialist Revolution in Russia Revolutions in Germany, Hungary, collapse of Austro-Hungarian Empire
	1936	Revolution in Spain
	1946-49	Conversion of Eastern Europe to socialism
	1956	Hungarian Revolution, Poznań protests in Poland
	1968 1970	“Prague Spring” in Czechoslovakia Protests in Poland
	1980-81	Polish crisis, emergence of “Solidarity”, martial law in Poland
	1989 1991	Fall of Berlin Wall, collapse of communism in Eastern Europe Collapse of Soviet Union and Yugoslavia

Out of 21 solar maximums in 1785-2014, 16 associated with most important revolutions that shaped the human history.

	Years	Events
	1789	Great French Revolution
	1830	Revolutions in Europe (France, Poland, Germany, Italy, Greece)
	1848	Revolutions in Europe (Italy, France, Germany, Austria, etc.)
	1861	Secession by the 13 southern US states that formed the C.S.A.
	1871	Uprising in Paris, “Paris Commune”
	1905-07	Revolution of 1905-07 in the Russian Empire
	1917 1918	February Revolution, Great October Socialist Revolution in Russia Revolutions in Germany and Hungary, collapse of Austro-Hungarian Empire
	1927	Revolution in Mexico
	1936	Revolution in Spain
	1947 1949	Independence and violent partition of India Revolution in China
	1957-59 1960	Revolution in Cuba “Year of Africa”: 17 countries gained independence
	1968	Student protests, general strikes in Europe and in Mexico
	1979	Islamic Revolution in Iran
	1989 1991	Fall of Berlin Wall, collapse of communism in Eastern Europe Collapse of Soviet Union and Yugoslavia
	2001	Rise of al-Qaeda, terrorist attack on the U.S. on September 11
	2010-12 2013-14	“Arab Spring”: Revolutions in Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Tunisia Revolution in Ukraine

Two most recent revolutionary waves – the collapse of communism in 1989-91 and the chain of revolutions in the Arab countries dubbed the “Arab Spring” in 2010-12 – overlapped with periods of elevated solar activity.

Solar Activity and Migration

Refugee inflows in the EU countries followed solar cycle pattern in 1985-2024.

Are these facts an interesting coincidence or part of a broad pattern?

Research papers and presentations

Extraordinary Economic and Social Events Associated with the Solar Cycle Maximum (2025)

The currently unfolding solar cycle 25 reached its maximum on or about October 2024. According to long-standing theoretical claims, cyclical maximums of solar activity could be associated with economic recessions (W.S.Jevons), revolutions and migration (A.L.Chizhevsky). And indeed, several of such extraordinary events have already occurred recently. These include revolutions in Bangladesh (2024), government collapse in Syria (2024), Hamas terrorist attack on Israel (2023), and student protests in the US and Europe against the war in Palestine (2024). Meanwhile, migrant influx overwhelmed the US and Western Europe. Are we going to see more of the extraordinary events typically associated with the solar maximums, such as revolutions in a few more countries colliding in a revolutionary wave like the Arab Spring of 2010-12 or collapse of Communism in 1989-91? Or economic recessions in the US and other advanced economies leading to a global economic slowdown?

Also available from RePEc, ResearchGate

Shifting Pattern of Extraordinary Economic and Social Events in Relation to the Solar Cycle (2020)

Most notable claims linking events on Earth with solar cycle phases relate to solar maximums. Cyclical maximums of solar activity could be associated with economic recessions (W.S.Jevons) or revolutions (A.L.Chizhevsky). However, both the diminishing magnitude of solar cycles and the recent crisis events warrant closer attention to solar minimums. The ongoing global economic and financial crisis—caused by the “great lockdown” response to the new COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic—coincided with cyclical minimum of solar activity, as did the previous Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09. And before that, Asian crisis of 1997-98 began shortly after solar minimum. These events point to the new emerging pattern of global economic and financial crises coinciding with cyclical minimums of solar activity.

Also available from RePEc, ResearchGate

Can Solar Activity Influence the Occurrence of Economic Recessions? (2015)

This paper revisits evidence of solar activity influence on economy. We examine whether economic recessions occur more often in the years around and after solar maximums. This research strand dates back to late XIX century writings of famous British economist William Stanley Jevons, who claimed that “commercial crises” occur with periodicity matching solar cycle length. Quite surprisingly, our results suggest that the hypothesis linking solar maximums and recessions is well anchored in data and cannot be easily rejected.

Also available from RePEc, ResearchGate

Sunspots, unemployment, and recessions, or Can the solar activity cycle shape the business cycle? (2012)

Over the last 77 years (from 1935), all 7 cyclical maximums of the solar activity overlapped closely with the US recessions, thus predicting (or triggering?) 8 out of 13 recessions officially identified by NBER (including one “double-deep” recession). Over the last 64 years (from 1948), all 6 maximums of the solar activity were preceded by minimums of the US unemployment rate, and the spikes in the unemployment rate followed with lags of 2-3 years. On the world scale, over the last 44 years (for which the data is available), all 4 maximums of the solar activity overlapped with minimums of the unemployment rate in the G7 countries, followed by its spikes within 2-3 years. From 1965, when consistent recession dating is available for all G7 countries, nearly 3/5 of the recessions started in the 3 years around and after the sunspot maximums. Was it a mere coincidence or a part of a broader pattern? This paper explores the correlation between the solar activity cycles (as measured by the number of sunspots on the sun surface) and the timing of recessions in the US and other economies. It finds out that the probability of recessions in G7 countries greatly increased around and after the solar maximums, suggesting that they can cause deterioration in business conditions and trigger recessions. This opens new approach for projecting recessions, which can be applied and tested with regard to the next solar maximum in 2013.

Also available from RePEc, ResearchGate

Can the Solar Activity Influence the Occurrence of Revolutions and Economic Recessions? (2024)

Can Solar Activity Influence the Occurrence of Economic Recessions? (2016)

Can solar activity influence the occurrence of recessions? (2015)

Sunspots, Unemployment, and Recessions, or Can the Solar Activity Cycle Cause the Business Cycle? (2012)

Further research and literature references

Last update: February 2025