Solar Activity and
Perturbations in Economy and Society
Theoretical claims
|
William
Stanley Jevons (1835-1882), English
economist and logician: Major “commercial crises” occur with intervals
broadly matching solar cycle length, a “beautiful coincidence”. Read
more |
|
Alexander
Chizhevsky (1897-1964), Russian
interdisciplinary scientist: Up to 60 percent of revolutions and other “most important historical events involving large numbers of people” occur in three years around and after cyclical maximums of solar activity. Read more |
Solar Activity and Economic
Recessions
Fact: Out of
22 recessions in the US economy identified by the National Bureau of Economic
Research (NBER) in 1901-2008, in the years corresponding to solar cycles
numbered by astronomers from 14 to 23, eleven recessions began in two years
around and after maximum points of those cycles. Moreover, out of 13 of those
recessions that began in 1933-2008 (solar cycles 17 to 23), eight – over 60
percent – began in two years around and after solar maximums.
Fact: Out of
36 recessions in G7 countries identified by NBER and The Economic Cycle
Research Institute (ECRI) in 1965-2008 (solar cycles 20 to 23), 21 – nearly 60
percent – began in 3 years around and after solar maximums.
Solar Activity and Unemployment
Fact: Each of eight
solar maximums in 1929-2008 overlapped closely with low points in the US
unemployment rate followed by its sharp increase.
Fact: Each of
five solar maximums in 1956-2008 overlapped closely with low points in the
aggregate unemployment rate in the G7 countries followed by its sharp increase.
Solar Activity and Revolutions
Fact: Two most
important revolutionary events of the XX century – the Russian revolution of
1917 that brought communists to power and USSR collapse in 1991 – occurred in
the years of maximum solar activity.
|
Years |
Events |
|
1905-07 |
Revolution
of 1905-07 in the Russian Empire |
|
1917 1918 |
February
Revolution, Great October Socialist Revolution in Russia Revolutions
in Germany, Hungary, collapse of Austro-Hungarian Empire |
|
1936 |
Revolution
in Spain |
|
1946-49 |
Conversion
of Eastern Europe to socialism |
|
1956 |
Hungarian
Revolution, Poznań protests in Poland |
|
1968 1970 |
“Prague
Spring” in Czechoslovakia Protests
in Poland |
|
1980-81 |
Polish
crisis, emergence of “Solidarity”, martial law in Poland |
|
1989 1991 |
Fall
of Berlin Wall, collapse of communism in Eastern Europe Collapse
of Soviet Union and Yugoslavia |
Fact: Out of
21 solar maximums in 1785-2014, 16 associated with most important revolutions
that shaped the human history.
|
Years |
Events |
|
1789 |
Great
French Revolution |
|
1830 |
Revolutions
in Europe (France, Poland, Germany, Italy, Greece) |
|
1848 |
Revolutions
in Europe (Italy, France, Germany, Austria, etc.) |
|
1861 |
Secession
by the 13 southern US states that formed the C.S.A. |
|
1871 |
Uprising
in Paris, “Paris Commune” |
|
1905-07 |
Revolution
of 1905-07 in the Russian Empire |
|
1917 1918 |
February
Revolution, Great October Socialist Revolution in Russia Revolutions
in Germany and Hungary, collapse of Austro-Hungarian Empire |
|
1927 |
Revolution
in Mexico |
|
1936 |
Revolution
in Spain |
|
1947 1949 |
Independence
and violent partition of India Revolution
in China |
|
1957-59 1960 |
Revolution
in Cuba “Year
of Africa”: 17 countries gained independence |
|
1968 |
Student
protests, general strikes in Europe and in Mexico |
|
1979 |
Islamic
Revolution in Iran |
|
1989 1991 |
Fall
of Berlin Wall, collapse of communism in Eastern Europe Collapse
of Soviet Union and Yugoslavia |
|
2001 |
Rise
of al-Qaeda, terrorist attack on the U.S. on September 11 |
|
2010-13 2013-14 |
“Arab
Spring”: Revolutions in Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Tunisia Revolution
in Ukraine |
Fact: The
currently unfolding solar cycle 24 went through an unusual double maximum, with
solar activity peaking in late 2011 and then reaching its cyclical maximum in
early 2014. The 2011 peak overlapped with the chain of revolutions in the Arab
countries dubbed “Arab Spring”. The solar maximum in the early 2014 overlapped
with revolution in Ukraine.
Fact: Refugee
inflows in the EU countries followed solar cycle pattern in 1985-2017.
Are these facts an interesting
coincidence or part of a broad pattern?
Solar Activity and Current
Developments
Economic conditions in the U.S. and G7 countries deteriorated in 2014-15
but stabilized and recovered in 2016-17, consistent with the historical
pattern. Composite
leading indicators (CLIs) designed by the OECD to give early signals of turning
points in the business cycle deteriorated for the U.S., for the G7 countries (read more), and for the entire OECD.
But no U.S. recession? A pattern observed for over 100 years suggested elevated
chances of U.S. recession starting in 2014-15, which did not happen.
And no reversal in the U.S. unemployment trend? The historical pattern pointed to
possibility that the declining trend in the U.S. unemployment rate would bottom
out and reverse in 2014-15, which did not occur.
In both cases, U.S. Fed’s highly
accommodative monetary policy targeted at supporting economic recovery and
boosting employment can explain the deviation from the historical pattern. Never
before the U.S. Federal Funds rate remained virtually zero for so long even as
the economy expanded and unemployment rate declined to its lowest level in many
years.
Research papers and presentations
Can Solar Activity Influence the
Occurrence of Economic Recessions? (2015)
This paper revisits evidence of solar activity influence on
economy. We examine whether economic recessions occur more often in the years
around and after solar maximums. This research strand dates back to late XIX
century writings of famous British economist William Stanley Jevons, who
claimed that “commercial crises” occur with periodicity matching solar cycle
length. Quite surprisingly, our results suggest that the hypothesis linking
solar maximums and recessions is well anchored in data and cannot be easily
rejected.
Also available from RePEc
Sunspots, unemployment, and recessions, or Can the solar
activity cycle shape the business cycle? (2012)
Over the last 77 years (from 1935), all 7 cyclical maximums of the solar activity overlapped closely with the US recessions, thus predicting (or triggering?) 8 out of 13 recessions officially identified by NBER (including one “double-deep” recession). Over the last 64 years (from 1948), all 6 maximums of the solar activity were preceded by minimums of the US unemployment rate, and the spikes in the unemployment rate followed with lags of 2-3 years. On the world scale, over the last 44 years (for which the data is available), all 4 maximums of the solar activity overlapped with minimums of the unemployment rate in the G7 countries, followed by its spikes within 2-3 years. From 1965, when consistent recession dating is available for all G7 countries, nearly 3/5 of the recessions started in the 3 years around and after the sunspot maximums. Was it a mere coincidence or a part of a broader pattern? This paper explores the correlation between the solar activity cycles (as measured by the number of sunspots on the sun surface) and the timing of recessions in the US and other economies. It finds out that the probability of recessions in G7 countries greatly increased around and after the solar maximums, suggesting that they can cause deterioration in business conditions and trigger recessions. This opens new approach for projecting recessions, which can be applied and tested with regard to the next solar maximum in 2013.
Also available from RePEc
Can Solar Activity Influence the
Occurrence of Economic Recessions? (2016)
Can solar activity influence the occurrence of recessions? (2015)
Sunspots, Unemployment, and Recessions, or Can the
Solar Activity Cycle Cause the Business Cycle?
(2012)
Further research and literature references
Last update: May 2018